It’s almost time. Not quite. But almost.
With every team in the league having played nine games (no more bye weeks – YES!!), it’s almost time to start discussing what the ever-changing playoff picture will look like.
(Come on, sing with me: “It’s the most/wonderful time/of the year…”)
So, for next week’s “Gettin’ you ready…” post, we’ll have an up-to-the-minute look at the playoff picture for both conferences. It will include teams that are already dead, teams on life support, teams that should make it and teams that are sitting pretty.
It will replace the “Thoughts on the bye week teams” section. We’d run it this week, but we’re firm believers that you can’t start talking playoffs until 10 games are in the books.
Those 10 games will be in the books for everyone after this week. Speaking of this week, let’s tee this thing up as we at OBOD get you ready for week eleven.
Game of the Week
San Diego Chargers (6-3) at Denver Broncos (6-3)
Just a few weeks ago, the AFC West looked like a done deal. The Broncos were 6-0 and the nation’s darlings. The Chargers were 3-3 and once again dealing with claims that, while they had the talent, they would yet again fail at putting it all together.
My how quickly things change.
The Bolts have ripped off three straight wins and are starting to look like legitimate AFC contenders. The Broncos have lost three in a row and are beginning to smell like flukes.
Two teams going in completely opposite directions meet, with the winner getting the inside track for the division title.
Game of the Weak
Cleveland Browns (1-8) at Detroit Lions (1-8)
Sometimes, this matchup contains one bad team. Sometimes, it has two bad teams.
And then there’s this one, a matchup of two teams so ungodly awful the stink will be detectable miles away. It’s a matchup so bad it might almost be good. Truth be told, I’m really glad the Packers are playing at the same time. Otherwise, I’d be tempted to watch this freak show. ‘Cause, you know, I’m weird like that.
Fantasy start
Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith vs. Cleveland – Smith has not been able to build on his strong rookie season so far. He has just 515 yards (3.4 per carry) and three scores.
The remedy? Cleveland’s 30th ranked rushing defense. If you have been benching Smith, I don’t blame you. But change that this week.
Fantasy sit
San Francisco RB Frank Gore vs. Green Bay/Green Bay RB Ryan Grant vs. San Francisco – The numbers speak for themselves. The Niners have the league’s third-best run defense (87.7 yards per game, 3.3 per carry) while the Packers have the league’s fourth-best run defense (93.1, 3.5).
The Packers’ offense is more balanced, to say the least, so benching Grant probably makes more sense. Either way, though, it’s unlikely to expect big numbers from Gore or Grant this week.
Week eleven predictions
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7) - The Steelers looked to be coming together before last week’s loss to Cincy in which the defending champs were outmuscled all over the place. Pittsburgh can rest easy this week; the Chiefs are NOT the Bengals. Pittsburgh 31, Kansas City 7
Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4) - Are the Colts due for a letdown after last week’s huge win over the Pats (aided by the dumbest fourth-down call in the past 10 years)? Is Baltimore for real? The answers to these questions: Maybe and probably not. Maybe wins, especially since it has Peyton Manning on its side. Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 14
San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4) – More on this in the coming days, of course. But for now I’ll just say that last week’s win over Dallas means nothing if the Pack don’t back it up this week. Against a scrappy, but subpar, Niners squad, I think they will. Green Bay 20, San Francisco 10
Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) - I keep dogging the Jags. And they keep proving that they might not be terrible, after all. Most of that stems from the fact they have Maurice Jones-Drew. Still, you could have a lot worse card to play. Will he be enough to get them to 6-4? Shockingly, yes. Yes it will. Jacksonville 21, Buffalo 17
Atlanta (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4) - Remember a month or so ago, when everyone just loved these two teams? Yeah, me neither. Either way, these are two teams that must, must, must win this week. It feels like the loser of this one will probably be unable to recover. Luckily for the Giants, fresh off the bye, it won’t be them. New York 27, Atlanta 20
New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8) – The Saints escaped St. Louis with a narrow victory last week, keeping them undefeated on the season. Another “cupcake” looms this week in the form of the Bucs. I just can’t see Sean Payton and Drew Brees letting that happen again, road game or not. In fact, I think the Saints are angry and the Bucs will feel that – in a bad, bad way. New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 10
Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8) - (Vomiting uncontrollably). Detroit 13, Cleveland 10
Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3) - It’s amazing how one week can change perceptions, isn’t it? The ‘Skins all of a sudden have new life, despite the fact that their “big win” came over a Denver team with Chris Simms at the helm. The ‘Boys are all of a sudden done, despite the fact that they’d won four games in a row before last week’s ass-kicking in Green Bay. The planets re-allign this week. Dallas 31, Washington 17
Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1) - As usual, when the Vikings play an inferior team, I try every which way I can to figure out ways they could lose. And against the awful Seahawks, I just couldn’t find any. This sucks. Minnesota 38, Seattle 20
Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8) - It’s only week eleven and already the Cards look to have the NFC West locked up. Good news for us Packers fans as Green Bay plays Arizona on the road the last week of the season. Matt Leinart at QB? YES!! Arizona 30, St. Louis 17
New York Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3) - Bad, bad timing for the Jets. First, they drop a tough one at home to the Jags last week. Now, they have to hit the road to play a Pats squad that is:
a) furious that the national media has been torching them all week for losing to the Colts
b) still mad at the Jets for beating them earlier in the season.
Uh-oh, Jets fans. New England 40, New York 24
San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3) - One team’s heading up. One team’s going down. I don’t see how that changes this week. San Diego 24, Denver 20
Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7) - Your reward for earning the season sweep of the defending Super Bowl champs, Bengals fans? A trip to Oakland. You’re welcome. Cincinnati 28, Oakland 10
Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5) – Just when the Eagles were getting themselves in gear, they go and drop two in a row (to Dallas and San Diego, respectively). Still, Philly battled back nicely against the Bolts before losing. That will be too much for the quickly fading Bears to handle. Way too much. Philadelphia 24, Chicago 13
Monday night
Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4) - Three wins in a row for the GD Titans as Chris Johnson is turning in a huge sophomore season. Houston is fresh off its bye and looking to prove it belongs in the AFC playoff conversation. That Tennessee is on a streak after spending the first six weeks making me look like an a-hole for saying it’d get to the Super Bowl is frustrating. Streak ends this week, jerks. Houston 28, Tennessee 21
Last week: 10-5
Overall for the season: 96-47 (67 percent)
-Chris Lempesis
